Pravda Asset Management

Abstract

This case examines the importance of forecasting expected returns in asset allocation decisions. While the case is targeted to MBA students in an investments or portfolio managment course, it is also appropriate for an advanced undergraduate course. It is written from the perspective of a new employee at a small investment management firm that was surprised by the market crash of 2008 and subsequent market rebound in 2009. The CIO of the firm is meeting with an important client to explain his asset allocation recommendations for 2008 and 2009 and to suggest a new allocation going forward. He enlists the help of this new employee in preparing the materials for this presentation. The case requires students to analyze the ability of simple valuation ratios to forecast returns. Students will use a smoothed price-to-earnings ratio to forecast future returns and given step-by-step instructions for the analysis. In addition, students must use their regression results to form a simple (two-asset) tactical asset allocation strategy to better understand the importance of forecasting expected returns for asset allocation decisions and how such forecasts could be used to form a simple tactical asset allocation model. Students also will examine the issues associated with performance measurement for a tactical asset allocation or market-timing investment strategy.