Practical Risk Prediction Tools for Coronary Heart Disease in Mild to Moderate Hypercholesterolemia in Japan Originated From the MEGA Study Data

Abstract

A simple and practical risk prediction tool for coronary heart disease (CHD) to determine the specific risk level in each patient that fits the true clinical practice setting is needed and would be valuable in Japan. A 5-year risk prediction score and chart for CHD based on the MEGA study data was developed in the present study. The MEGA risk prediction score and chart were constructed based on the coefficient of each risk factor. The risk factors included in these risk prediction tools were: treatment (diet, diet plus pravastatin), sex, age, baseline high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, baseline low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, glucose abnormality (diabetes and impaired fasting glucose), hypertension, and smoking. The MEGA risk prediction score comprised the risk score for each risk factor, and it can predict 5-year risk for CHD with 5 levels of risk, based on the total risk score. The MEGA risk prediction chart more accurately predicts risk, by reflecting the accumulation of risk factors and using an 8-color visual chart. The MEGA risk prediction score and chart, developed from the MEGA study data, more easily and accurately assesses the 5-year CHD risk in mild to moderate hypercholesterolemic patients in the usual clinical practice setting in Japan.