Practical possibilistic fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation

Abstract

This paper describes a set of proposed additions to the recently introduced possibilistic fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation that enhances the practical usability of the method. The additions are focused on the practical usability of the method and concentrate on emphasizing the consideration of the downside-risk found in projects. Technically the additions are based on using a novel interpretation of the possibilistic mean as a proxy respectively for the weight of the downside and the upside of a possibility distribution in the context of project profitability. This interpretation of the possibilistic mean is a new theoretical contribution.The proposed new method-variant, called the “practical possibilistic fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation”, can effectively distinguish between projects with an identical upside and non-identical downsides and allows for a more finance-theoretically comprehensive consideration of situations, where the circumstances surrounding the downside risk of a project change. Changes in the downside are reflected in the real option value. The proposed changes constitute the first variant of the possibilistic fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation and they remarkably increase the practical usability of the method.