Practical Nomograms and Risk Stratification System for Predicting the Overall and Cancer-specific Survival in Patients with Anaplastic Astrocytoma

Abstract

ObjectiveAnaplastic astrocytoma (AA) is an uncommon primary brain tumor with highly variable clinical outcomes. Our study aimed to develop practical tools for clinical decision-making in a population-based cohort study. MethodsData from 2997 patients diagnosed with AA between 2004 and 2015 were retrospectively extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The LASSO and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to select factors and establish prognostic nomograms. The discriminatory ability of these nomogram models was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Risk stratifications were established based on the nomograms. ResultsSelected 2997 AA patients were distributed into the training cohort (70%, 2097) and the validation cohort (30%, 900). Age, household income, tumor site, extension, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors for both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). In the training cohort, our nomograms for OS and CSS exhibited good predictive accuracy with C-index values of 0.752 (95% CI: 0.741–0.764) and 0.753 (95% CI: 0.741–0.765), respectively. Calibration and DCA curves showed that the nomograms demonstrated considerable consistency and satisfactory clinical utilities. With the establishment of nomograms, we stratified AA patients into high- and low-risk groups, and constructed risk stratification systems for OS and CSS. ConclusionsWe constructed two predictive nomograms and risk classification systems to effectively predict the OS and CSS rates in AA patients. These models were internally validated with considerable accuracy and reliability and might be helpful in future clinical practices.