Practical guidelines for modelling post-entry spread in invasion ecology

Hazel Parry,Rohan Sadler,Darren Kriticos

doi:10.3897/neobiota.18.4305

Hazel Parry, Rohan Sadler + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.18.4305

Copy DOI

Abstract

In this article we review a variety of methods to enable understanding and modelling the spread of a pest or pathogen post-entry. Building upon our experience of multidisciplinary research in this area, we propose practical guidelines and a framework for model development, to help with the application of mathematical modelling in the field of invasion ecology for post-entry spread. We evaluate the pros and cons of a range of methods, including references to examples of the methods in practice. We also show how issues of data deficiency and uncertainty can be addressed. The aim is to provide guidance to the reader on the most suitable elements to include in a model of post-entry dispersal in a risk assessment, under differing circumstances. We identify both the strengths and weaknesses of different methods and their application as part of a holistic, multidisciplinary approach to biosecurity research.

Highlights

Invasive species can have enormous economic and ecological impacts (Perrings et al 2000, Pimentel 2011, Simberloff et al 2005, Simberloff 2013)
Mechanistic, process-based simulation models are a more recent development for modelling spread post-entry (Turchin 1998), enabled in part by the growing power of computing to support large, complex models. Such approaches to dispersal modelling align with ‘ballistic’ simulations or in physics termed ‘Lagrangian’ models – where individual pathways are traced as they move according to a set of stochastic or behavioural rules
This leads to a different approach where the preferred option would be potential distribution models; if a more dynamic approach is feasible by fewer constraints at this point network models/metapopulation models may be more appropriate

Summary

Introduction

Invasive species can have enormous economic and ecological impacts (Perrings et al 2000, Pimentel 2011, Simberloff et al 2005, Simberloff 2013). This article focuses on this ‘post-entry spread’ stage of the invasion process, understanding dispersal processes and modelling the spread and establishment potential of a pest or pathogen once it has arrived into a region We differentiate this from the population dynamics and dispersal of native species, as post-entry pest spread of non-native species has particular features that add to the modelling challenge. Models can be used to decide when and at what scale a management strategy should be implemented given the progression of an invasion, and to decide whether the costs will outweigh the benefits With such diversity of pathways, scales and complexity of dispersal processes for post-entry spread, and with such a wide range of possible applications, there is a parallel diversity of modelling methods. We aim to give an overview here to help guide modellers to select appropriate methods

Background

Result values

Discussion