Abstract

The results of a system dynamics model of pastoralism in the sahel region of West Africa are presented and analyzed, and the conclusion is drawn that not all the desired objectives for developing the region can be attained simultaneously. The fact that practical tradeoffs exist leads to a consideration of some ethical issues which may enter into the choice of alternative development policies. The principal data source for this study is the sahel and subdesert region of Niger north of Tahoua, where herdsmen practice traditional animal husbandry, seeking pastures in the north during the rainy sea son and descending south toward the agricultural zones in the dry season. The probable effects of aid efforts in the past were analyzed, with the con clusion that if they had any effect at all, it was to increase the severity of the drought disaster in both ecological and human terms. A set of seven desirable long-term objectives is defined and policies to achieve them are simulated. The simulation results indicate definite tradeoffs among the desired objectives. The existence of mutually exclusive attainable objectives leads to a consideration of the ethical issues involved in the choice of alternate development policies. This case study serves as an example of how system dynamics may be used to reduce complex social prob- Zems to a set of relevant ethical questions.

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