Powering up in a warming world: the impacts of heat waves on power generation in China

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the impact of heat waves on China’s electricity generation by integrating micro-level data on power plants with meteorological data from 2007 to 2016. Our results show that an additional day with an average daily temperature between 25°C and 30°C, and above 30°C, compared to temperatures between 10°C and 15°C, leads to a 0.4% and 0.7% increase in power generation, respectively. These effects are particularly pronounced in thermal power and hydropower plants, as opposed to those utilizing renewable energy sources, thereby exacerbating environmental degradation. Notably, an additional day with temperatures exceeding 30°C would result in an increase of approximately 24 million tons in carbon dioxide emissions from thermal power alone. We further identify that power plants located in the central region, those with larger capacities, and state-owned power plants are more acutely affected by high temperatures. Based on the regression results and future temperature forecasts, we project that China’s electricity generation will increase by 2.4% to 9.6%, 5.7% to 23.1%, and 4.4% to 35.6% in the short, medium, and long term, respectively, depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions are controlled. Our findings suggest that China’s energy policy should prioritize the low-carbon transformation of the power supply structure.