Powering sustainable development within planetary boundaries.

Ibrahim M Algunaibet,Mark A J Huijbregts,Carlos Pozo,Niall Mac Dowell,Ángel Galán-Martín,Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez

doi:10.1039/c8ee03423k

Ibrahim M Algunaibet, Mark A J Huijbregts + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1039/c8ee03423k

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Abstract

The concept of planetary boundaries identifies a safe space for humanity. Current energy systems are primarily designed with a focus on total cost minimization and bounds on greenhouse gas emissions. Omitting planetary boundaries in energy systems design can lead to energy mixes unable to power our sustainable development. To overcome this conceptual limitation, we here incorporate planetary boundaries into energy systems models, explicitly linking energy generation with the Earth's ecological limits. Taking the United States as a testbed, we found that the least cost energy mix that would meet the Paris Agreement 2 degrees Celsius target still transgresses five out of eight planetary boundaries. It is possible to meet seven out of eight planetary boundaries concurrently by incurring a doubling of the cost compared to the least cost energy mix solution (1.3% of the United States gross domestic product in 2017). Due to the stringent downscaled planetary boundary on biogeochemical nitrogen flow, there is no energy mix in the United States capable of satisfying all planetary boundaries concurrently. Our work highlights the importance of considering planetary boundaries in energy systems design and paves the way for further research on how to effectively accomplish such integration in energy related studies.

Highlights

Introduction a Centre for Process SystemsEngineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UKDesigning sustainable energy mixes of the future is a complex task that requires the use of energy systems models (ESMs) to support decision-making
We present an approach to assist in the design of sustainable energy mixes based on the concept of Planetary Boundaries (PBs),[16] a set of ecological limits that should never be transgressed by our planet to operate safely
We found that six out of the eight PBs considered are transgressed in solution (S1), including atmospheric CO2 concentration, energy imbalance at top-of-atmosphere, ocean acidification, biogeochemical N flow, freshwater use and stratospheric ozone depletion (Fig. 2), which raises significant concerns about our future ability to deliver sustainable energy without altering the current status quo

Summary

Introduction

Paper where WT is a continuous variable that quantifies the value of the objective function to be minimized given by the summation of the weighted transgression magnitude of every downscaled PB p by the US power sector share of the safe operating space, PBTp is a continuous positive variable that measures by how much each downscaled PB p is transgressed, EPi,j,p is the total environmental burden generated per unit of energy supplied by each technology i in every state j linked to PB p, xi,j is a continuous variable denoting the amount of electricity supplied in 2030 by technology i in state j, SoSOSp is the US power sector absolute share of the safe operating space for every PB p derived via eqn (2), Ai,j is the engineering technical matrix of constraints defined for technology i in state j, ai,j is the accompanying upper bound vector for each engineering constraint (e.g., the generation potential of a technology limits its electricity generation) for technology i in state j and R is the set of real numbers to which variables WT, PBTp and xi,j belong.

Results

Conclusion