Power transformer health index estimation using evidential reasoning

Abstract

Market-oriented power distribution system requires a well-planned budget with scheduled preventive and corrective maintenance during a replacement of units that are in an unsatisfactory condition. In recent years, the concept of the transformer health index as an integral part of resource management was adopted for the condition assessment and ranking of ETs. However, because of the lack of regular measurement and inspections, the confidence in health index value is greatly reduced. The paper proposes a novel methodology for the ET condition assessment and the lifetime increase through the establishment of priorities for control and maintenance. The solution is based on the upgraded health index, where the confidence to the measurement results is calculated using Evidential reasoning algorithm based on Dempster - Shafer theory. A novel, two - level hierarchical model of ET health index is proposed, with real weighting factors values. This way, the methodology for ET ranking includes the value of available information to describe ET current state. The proposed methodology is tested on real data of an installed ET and compared with the traditional health index calculation.