Abstract
Wind power is one of the more effective ways to solve the energy crisis and environmental pollution problems. Compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power has a good prospect for development, because of its advantages of saving land resources and abundant wind energy. As the installed capacity of offshore wind power is gradually increasing in the power system, it is especially important to analyze the reliability of power systems containing offshore wind power farms. The method first uses the ARMA algorithm to predict the wind speed of offshore wind farms based on historical data, and establishes an offshore wind farm output model. Then, a sequential Monte Carlo method is used to analyze and compare the reliability of the power system with offshore wind power system under the influence of wind speed characteristics, offshore wind turbine and cable failure, onshore unit failure, and onshore load. Finally, the correctness and practicality of the proposed method are verified by simulation. The simulation and analysis results show that the proposed method can provide some reference for offshore wind farm planning.
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