Power system operational reliability equivalent modeling and analysis based on the Markov chain

Abstract

Aiming at the disadvantage of Monte Carlo simulation method in slow convergence and using a great number of computation resources, this paper, based on analytical approach, builds a quick power system operational reliability analyzing model. From the viewpoint of operation, this model which is based on Markov chain, assumes that equipment failure rate follows exponential distribution. Its core content includes three aspects. Firstly, a convenient criterion, used to divide power system operation into three states, and the corresponding statespace transition expression are proposed for engineering application. Secondly, Markov state transition probability matrix is obtained based on power system operation historical data (or simulation data sample). Thirdly, based on state transition probability matrix and current operating state of power system, state transition probability, steady state probability and the mean time to first failure can be acquired very quickly. Example analysis using RBTS-BUS6 system, testified the Markov property of power system state transition and the efficiency of this study.