Power-Sharing Coalitions and Ethnic Armed Conflict

Abstract

How do multiethnic coalitions affect the risk of violent conflict? We argue that government leaders form larger ruling coalitions as the uncertainty over violent threats from radical sub-groups increases. We formalize this argument in a novel multi-actor model. Our game-theoretic approach illustrates how power-maximizing government leaders reduce the risk of rebellion by sharing power with radical subgroup leaders, while only slightly increasing the risk of coups. Empirically, we rely on a novel selection estimator and data on ethnic coalitions to investigate the predictions from our theoretical model. Our findings show that the conflict-reducing effect of power sharing increases once we consider the endogeneity of coalition formation and conflict. Our results also demonstrate that power-sharing coalitions are most effective when including radical sub-groups. Our study has important implications for research on coalition formation, authoritarian politics, and armed conflict.