Power sector transition plan of a coal-rich region in India with high-resolution spatio-temporal data based model

Abstract

This paper argues that a fit-for-purpose model and datasets are necessary to generate transition pathways for the electricity generation sector at the subnational level. We present the methodology, data, and results focusing at a sub-national level, the state of West Bengal in India. The approach can be generalized for any region with necessary customization. By utilizing high-resolution spatio-temporal input datasets, this study proposes a power sector capacity expansion model to compute three sets of transitional scenarios and one set of the current-as-usual scenario. These scenarios consider sub-national energy carrier-resource constraints and are solved to identify the most economically cost efficient future transition pathway for the electricity sector in West Bengal. Based on the least-cost solution, computations determine the optimal energy mix, operations, investments, and emissions for alternative scenarios. The results show that integrating demand-side flexibility (DSF) as a balancing option can lead to transformative outcomes. Compared to the current capacity expansion trend (ScenCA), adopting a thermal mix renewable scenario with intraday load-shifting (ScenTMDSF) could reduce 77% of CO2 emissions by 2040. This does not necessitate early retirement of existing thermal power plants, total investment increases by 13% compared to ScenCA. Without DSF as a balancing option, an additional 26% investment is required compared to the current-as-usual scenario for 2040. Transitioning to 100% renewable energy (ScenREN) requires 30% more investment, early retirement of 5.34 GW of thermal capacity, and nearly 2.7 times more storage battery capacity. These numbers help in understanding the magnitude of the financial resource and kind of technological need for the developing countries not only from the point of view of equitable climate action from burden sharing and just transition principles but also provides practical example of need for redirecting global capital for creating global good through subnational scale actions.