Power quality validation in micro off-grid daily load using modular differential, LSTM deep, and probability statistics models processing NWP-data

Abstract

Load corrections with respect to power quality (PQ) after the first pre-estimate of Renewable Energy (RE) power consumption must ensure system-tolerant performance without malfunctions. First, acceptable daily load sequences for the attached equipment are combined and determined according to the RE potential and charge states in accommodation to user needs and normal operation. The main motivation is a consequent day-to-day verification of algorithmically scheduled power consumption tasks in the proposed two-stage optimisation according to the system resources and user needs. Statistical artificial intelligence (AI) is employed, as local atmospheric turbulences with terrain obstacles and unexpected user activity result in various operational states in real microsystems. A new unconventional neurocomputing strategy, called Differential Learning (DfL), was applied in the modelling and prediction of the high dynamical PQ parameters in an experimental RE based system according to input-output training data, without an exact specification of its behaviour. The DfL models were compared with recent deep and machine learning techniques. Prediction models were formed after an initial detection of adequate daily training intervals. The AI models are finally tested to process the complete 24-hour forecast series of related input variables used in learning, to estimate the PQ target output at the corresponding times.