Power politics: How electric grievances shape election outcomes

Abstract

We argue in this study that higher electricity expenditures increase voter support for the radical right because these parties oppose costly climate mitigation policies. We use data from Sweden, which experiences extremely high demand for heating energy during winter months. The demand for electricity differs greatly between geographical regions due to large temperature differences, from 0 in the southern regions to −50 Celsius in the north. We create our independent variable of electric grievances based on this variation, which increases faster with the spot price of electricity in neighborhoods with a low disposable income relative to the average electricity bill in that area. Using this setup, we find that electric grievances are associated with increased support for the radical right. We argue that soaring electricity prices tend to hurt parties with a mainstream profile since voters associate them them with more ambitious decarbonization policies, while the radical right gain support, since they tend to oppose costly solutions. Our results suggests that the transition to renewable energy can grind to a halt when electricity prices rise higher because voters may abandon the parties who push for the green transition.