Power Grid Capacity Forecasting Based on Electrical Energy Requirements Considering Macroeconomic Factor in Malang Regency

Abstract

The electricity systems in Malang Regency are the second complex system in East Java, which have 10 substations and 28 feeders until now with an increasing annual load. With the increasing annual load every year, it is necessary to estimate the demand of electrical energy for a balance exists between the energy required by customers and the distributed electricity to the network to reduce the loss rate and provide customers satisfaction. This paper will discuss the forecasting of electrical energy consumption for each sector (household, business, industrial, and public) based on macroeconomic factors those are population, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), and inflation. Furthermore, based on the required energy consumption, the connected power grid must be calculated on the network. The method is a multiple linear regression method with population, GRDP, and inflation as the independent variables and electrical energy consumption as a dependent variable. The result of this study indicates that in the year of 2018 to 2029, the electrical energy consumption of each sector shows a relatively constant increase with the highest consumption in the household sector. In addition, using the IEEE standard of load factor (0,6-0,8), the total power grid capacity required on the network in 2029 is 414,99 MVA which at the end of 2017 totally power grid connected to the network is only 341,04 MVA. This means the additional power grid capacity is needed to be connected to the network so that by 2029 electricity needs can be fulfilled.