Power Generation Technological Determinants for Fuel Scenario Outlook

Abstract

Concentration of power market revolutionary changes within the relatively narrow time frame of the last decade will continue for at least another decade. Too many dynamic factors have been seen in the research & development of new power generation technology as well as commercial realisation. Too many impulses have been also seen in the independent power market arena. New legislation framework, new financing tools, deregulation, privatisation and liberalisation trends have become typical with many emerging-economy countries but also with countries having highly developed infrastructure supported by stabilised legislation & political system. Under such circumstances natural gas (NG) has been preferred both by private developers as well as state developers. From the same reason also gas turbines (GT) based technologies have become highly competitive option in the new capacity demand saturation. GT technologies will retain their dominant position also in the future. However, this needn’t inevitably mean that also NG must retain the first choice for the whole period of next generation. NG market may become saturated in middle-range horizon, approximately about 2010–2015. Huge reserves of coal together with appropriate coal-based technologies like IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle) or PFBC (Pressurised Fluidised Bed Combustion) will cause subsequent decline from NG towards other fossil fuel commodities. Reasons for such scenario are given in our analysis.