Abstract
The motivation for this paper is the enhanced role of power generation prediction in power plants and power systems in the smart grid paradigm. The proposed approach addresses the impact of the ambient temperature on the performance of an open cycle gas turbine when using the Kalman Filter (KF) technique and the power-temperature (P-T) characteristic of the turbine. Several Kalman Filtering techniques are tested to obtain improved temperature forecasts, which are then used to obtain output power predictions. A typical P-T curve of an open-cycle gas turbine is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Nonlinear and linear discrete process models are studied. Extended Kalman Filters are proposed for the nonlinear model. The Time Varying, Time Invariant, and Steady State Kalman Filters are used with the linearized model. Simulation results show that the power generation prediction obtained using the Extended Kalman Filter with the piecewise linear model yields improved forecasts. The linear formulations, though less accurate, are a promising option when a power generation forecast for a small-term and short-term time window is required.
Highlights
Meteorological conditions affect the demand for electricity as well as the performance of the generating units, conventional or renewable [1]
Extended Kalman Filter (EKF)-f was applied for the nonlinear model for f = 168 (1 week) and f = 720 (1 month) with the EKF-f was applied for the nonlinear model for f = 168 (1 week) and f = 720 (1 month) with the same initial conditions
The proposed Kalman Filter (KF) algorithms reproduce the trend of the actual power generation curve and the results are generally closer to the actual power than the output power forecast based on the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecast temperature
Summary
Meteorological conditions affect the demand for electricity as well as the performance of the generating units, conventional or renewable [1]. In the case of conventional power generators, the key factors affecting their performance are the technology used, (e.g., an open-cycle gas turbine, a Diesel engine, etc.), and their output dependence on operating conditions, such as the ambient air temperature, pressure, and relative humidity. In the usual two spool, aeroderivative engine design, the pressure ratio of the compressor at constant speed is reduced as the inlet temperature increases This results in an increase of the compressor’s work, provided by the gas generator turbine, leaving less net output for the power turbine. In a two-spool aeroderivative gas turbine, the SPRINT system (Spray Intercooling) [9] injects demineralized water into the engine either upstream of the low pressure compressor or between the low pressure and high pressure compressors In this way, air temperature is reduced by the water evaporation cooling and compressor’s efficiency increased.
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