Abstract
The vast growing economic development in South East Asia (ASEAN) region leads to the increase of energy demand particularly electricity. Almost all the ASEAN member countries are planning to develop nuclear power plant in the near future, despite having quite enormous number of renewable energy potential such as geothermal (Indonesia and Philippines), high solar radiation (between 3 - 5 kW/m2/day), biomass and hydro the countries still required more sophisticated and more reliable source of power for its based load such as nuclear power. Philippines has built the first nuclear power plant back in 1980 in Bataan, however the commissioning of this plant was postponed due to the political power turbulence. The question whether nuclear or renewable energy could be the best option in term of cost effectiveness will be assessed in this paper. The optimization methodology has been used by using GAMS (General Algebraic Model), the econometric based on time series (1999-2010) is used to predict the increases of national power generation up to year 2030. The increases of electricity demand is assumed to be linear with the increased country GDP (Gross Domestic Products) and population. The optimization predicted that In Malaysia, the renewable energy could be the best option, since it shows lower cost compare to the fossil fuel based power plant. Geothermal in the Philippines shows cheaper to be commissioned compare to fossil fuel and nuclear power plant. While Indonesia the cost of nuclear still not competitive enough compare to fossil fuel, mainly due to cost of subsidy.
Highlights
Despite having more than 28,000 billion barrels of oil reserves, the member countries of ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations, perhaps except Brunei Darussalam) are predicted to become a net importer of oil in the 5 - 10 years
The optimization methodology has been used by using GAMS (General Algebraic Model), the econometric based on time series (1999-2010) is used to predict the increases of national power generation up to year 2030
Apart from oil reserves, the region has some other natural resources potential such as natural gas and coal, these resources are fastly depleting due to the rapidly growing economy in this region. Anticipating to this downward movement of fossil energy resources, most countries have begun developing renewable energy and even consider developing nuclear power plants to reduce their dependence on fossil energy and in some respects to help mitigate the impact of climate change
Summary
Despite having more than 28,000 billion barrels of oil reserves, the member countries of ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations, perhaps except Brunei Darussalam) are predicted to become a net importer of oil in the 5 - 10 years. Apart from oil reserves, the region has some other natural resources potential such as natural gas and coal, these resources are fastly depleting due to the rapidly growing economy in this region Anticipating to this downward movement of fossil energy resources, most countries have begun developing renewable energy and even consider developing nuclear power plants to reduce their dependence on fossil energy and in some respects to help mitigate the impact of climate change. The total reserves of more than 4300 MMT (Million Metric tones) coal in Indonesia and Thailand (both bituminous and lignite) represent the biggest fossil fuel reserves in the region [1]. These reserves are relatively low compared to the worldwide reserves. This article analyse the issues using top down approach with consideration to various cost variables (such as investment cost, decommissioning cost and cost of subsidy), with the objective of finding the least cost possible in the three main developing countries in ASEAN region: Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia
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