Abstract
Reasonable and effective power planning contributes a lot to energy efficiency improvement, as well as the formulation of future economic and energy policies for a region. Since only a few provinces in China have nuclear power plants so far, nuclear power plants were not considered in many provincial-level power planning models. As an extremely important source of power generation in the future, the role of nuclear power plants can never be overlooked. In this paper, a comprehensive and detailed optimization model of provincial-level power generation expansion considering biomass and nuclear power plants is established from the perspective of electricity demand uncertainty. This model has been successfully applied to the case study of Zhejiang Province. The findings suggest that the nuclear power plants will contribute 9.56% of the total installed capacity, and it will become the second stable electricity source. The lowest total discounted cost is 1033.28 billion RMB and the fuel cost accounts for a large part of the total cost (about 69%). Different key performance indicators (KPI) differentiate electricity demand in scenarios that are used to test the model. Low electricity demand in the development mode of the comprehensive adjustment scenario (COML) produces the optimal power development path, as it provides the lowest discounted cost.
Highlights
Many countries in the world have experienced or are experiencing energy crisis and environmental pollution [1,2]
In view of the above research gaps, a comprehensive and detailed optimization model of provincial-level power generation expansion considering biomass and nuclear power plants is established from the perspective of electricity demand uncertainty
Since the total installed nuclear power capacity in Zhejiang Province ranks third in China, it is reasonable that nuclear power accounts for 9.56% of the total installed capacity during the planning horizon in this paper
Summary
Many countries in the world have experienced or are experiencing energy crisis and environmental pollution [1,2]. As the largest developing country in the world, China is confronted with these serious issues. Due to the continuous population growth and the rapid economic development, the ever-increasing demand for energy in the whole society has reached an unprecedented height [3]. The energy crisis will seriously hinder the process of social and economic development, and environmental pollution will affect the sustainable development of ecological civilization. We do not want to see any of these issues worsening in China, which is an increasingly influential country. China’s total electricity demand increased from 4193.5 TW-h in 2010 to 5802.0 TW-h in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 6.3%
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