Power forecasting for smart grid planning based on business expansion

Abstract

With the development of the smart grid, significant changes have taken place in the power market. Accurate prediction of electricity consumption in the whole society can not only ensure the scientific dispatching of the power market and meet the social electricity demand, but also carry out strategic planning and deployment for the development of the smart grid. Due to the statistical rule of the regional power grid is not obvious, this paper not only uses the typical electricity prediction method but proposes a power consumption forecasting method based on business expansion, and the power consumption time sequence is generally vulnerable to the effects of seasonal change. In this method, the X12 data information processing model is used to decompose the electricity consumption series seasonally to eliminate the influence of seasonal factors and random errors, and then the computer technology is used to calculate the correlation between the trend items of business expansion and the trend items of the whole society electricity consumption series. Finally, regression analysis and prediction are made for the power business expansion sequence with the lag N period, which has the strongest correlation with the power consumption of the whole society, and a numerical example is analyzed. The results show that the actual electricity consumption of the whole society is close to the predicted value. This method provides a new idea and method for power prediction and effectively improves power prediction accuracy.