Power Cycles and Security Complexes: Evolution of the East Asian Supercomplex

Abstract

In recent decades East Asia has become the center of global economic dynamism. Despite this, the region is home to a significant number of unresolved territorial disputes that threaten to undermine peace and stability. This article aims to synthesize the concepts of role-power gaps from Power Cycle Theory (PCT) and patterns of amity and enmity from Regional Security Complex Theory in an effort to increase their respective ability to determine the likelihood of peaceful transitions and stable relations in the region. The first section presents the main principles of PCT and how amenable the theory is to a synthesis with Regional Security Complex Theory. The second section assesses critical points in which the United States, Japan, China, and South Korea find themselves and how these can influence policymaking. The third section provides a brief overview of patterns of amity and enmity that characterize the relationship between these states. The fourth section synthesizes the critical points.