Poverty Trend in Seven Decades (1951–2011) in India using Semi-log Growth Model Approach

Abstract

This study explored poverty trend in India in seven decades (1951–2011) using graphical and Semi-log growth model. The seven decade trend shows overall incidence of poverty in both urban and rural of the country has been declining. 1954/55 and 1966/67 were the two historical years that Indian poverty rate has reached maximum, 61.1 percent and 62 percent, respectively. The period up to the mid-1960s, is characterized by fluctuations in poverty without a trend. The 1970s and1980s were decade in which poverty trend only contentiously decline without rise. Poverty has fallen far more rapidly and significantly after 1990s than previously. The trend shows the country poverty history was directly connected with rural poverty. Semi-log growth trend model output indicates, overall, poverty declined between 1951–2011 development plan period at the rate of -.012 per year, or at 1.2 percentage points per year. One year increase in time resulted in 1.2 percentage points per year decrease in poverty until eleventh development plan period (1951–2011). During second development plan period poverty declined at the rate of 1.8 percent point per year. In fourth development plan period also poverty declined at the rate of 2.1 percent point per year. During fifth and sixth development plan periods poverty declined, at the rate of 2.1 and1.01 percentage points, respectively. Equally, in eleventh development plan period poverty has declined at the rate of2.3 percentage points per year. But, during third development plan period poverty raised and showed statistically significant upward trend. Poverty rose at the rate of.044 per year, or at 4.4 percentage point per year.