Potentials and financial viability of solar photovoltaic power generation in Nigeria for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation

Abstract

Power generation processes are major contributors of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which have been linked to the global warming phenomenon, and by relying on solar photovoltaics (PV) for power generation, GHG emissions can be minimized. However, current and future power supply scenarios in Nigeria are heavily dependent on natural-gas-fired plants. Whereas the solar energy resource available in Nigeria is adequate for PV power generation, concurrent evaluations of its techno-economic feasibility and GHG mitigation effectiveness are lacking. In this study, 100-MW solar PV stations were proposed for 25 locations in Nigeria and analyzed for profitability and GHG mitigation effectiveness. Using the RETScreen software, energy and cost models were developed for each location, and GHG emissions the base (gas-fired plants) and proposed cases (solar PV plants) were analyzed. The systems proposed for high-latitude locations were found to be more profitable than those for low-latitude locations. Of the 25 locations, the proposed 100-MW PV plant in Gusau (lat. $$11.88^{\circ }\,\hbox {N}$$, lon. 6.65°) had the highest annual energy production of 167,307 MWh of electricity, a cumulative cash flow (CCF) of US$795.3 million, an energy production cost of US$66.74/MWh, a Net Present Value (NPV) of US$215 million, and a GHG reduction potential of 41,195.2 $$\hbox {tCO}_2/\hbox {year}$$. Port Harcourt (lat. $$4.75^{\circ }\,\hbox {N}$$, lon. $$7.00^{\circ }\,\hbox {E}$$) was the least favorable location with electricity production estimated at 108,309 MWh per annum, CCF at US$389.7 million, energy production cost at US$103.10/MWh, NPV at US$40 million, and GHG reduction potential estimated at $$26,668.5\hbox { tCO}_2/\hbox {year}$$. The huge initial costs required for installing the systems could be recovered within 10.6 to 14 years at the locations considered, the estimated simple payback periods being between 11.6 and 18 years. An average GHG reduction payment of US$265/$$\hbox {tCO}_2$$ is recommended to improve the profitability of the solar PV plants in Nigeria.