Abstract
Under current trends, 60% of India's population (>10% of people on Earth) will experience severe food deficiencies by 2050. Increased production is urgently needed, but high costs and volatile prices are driving farmers into debt. Zero budget natural farming (ZBNF) is a grassroots movement that aims to improve farm viability by reducing costs. In Andhra Pradesh alone, 523,000 farmers have converted 13% of productive agricultural area to ZBNF. However, sustainability of ZBNF is questioned because external nutrient inputs are limited, which could cause a crash in food production. Here, we show that ZBNF is likely to reduce soil degradation and could provide yield benefits for low-input farmers. Nitrogen fixation, either by free-living nitrogen fixers in soil or symbiotic nitrogen fixers in legumes, is likely to provide the major portion of nitrogen available to crops. However, even with maximum potential nitrogen fixation and release, only 52-80% of the national average nitrogen applied as fertilizer is expected to be supplied. Therefore, in higher-input systems, yield penalties are likely. Since biological fixation from the atmosphere is possible only with nitrogen, ZBNF could limit the supply of other nutrients. Further research is needed in higher-input systems to ensure that mass conversion to ZBNF does not limit India's capacity to feed itself.
Highlights
Sustainability of Zero budget natural farming (ZBNF) is questioned because external nutrient inputs are limited, which could cause a crash in food-production
Given the high stakes associated with potential mass-conversion of farms across India to ZBNF, we examine sources of nitrogen potentially available within a strict ZBNF-system and assess possible longterm impacts on soils of widespread conversion
Each of the four wheels of ZBNF have potential to provide or retain nitrogen that can be used by the crop, and to have a longer-term impact on the organic matter content and productivity of the soil
Summary
60% of India’s population (>10% of people on Earth) will experience severe food deficiencies by 2050. Sustainability of ZBNF is questioned because external nutrient inputs are limited, which could cause a crash in food-production. We show that ZBNF is likely to reduce soil degradation and could provide yield-benefits for low-input farmers. In higher-input systems, yield penalties are likely. Since biological fixation from the atmosphere is only possible with nitrogen, ZBNF could limit supply of other nutrients. Further research is needed in higher-input systems to ensure mass conversion to ZBNF does not limit India’s capacity to feed itself. Under business-as-usual, by 2050 60% of India’s population, equivalent to over 10% of the people on Earth, will experience severe deficiencies in calories, digestible protein and fat 4
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