Potential Value of Soil Conservation Service Streamflow Outlook Based on Flexible Crop Combinations

Abstract

The potential value of Soil Conservation Service (SCS) water supply outlook information was examined with a representative case farm situation in which crop enterprise combinations and irrigation practices could be adjusted in response to expected water supplies over a simulated 20-yr period (1969-1988). A programming model of a 1000-acre farm unit was used to develop optimum crop combinations and specified irrigation levels based on expected water supplies on 1 March. In this setting, overly pessimistic water supply expectations could result in foregone opportunities if more water was received than expected. Conversely, overly optimistic expectations could result in losses of abandoned acreage and unrecovered operating costs when expected water failed to materialize []