Potential utility of actuarial methods for identifying specific learning disabilities

Abstract

This article describes how actuarial methods can supplant discrepancy models and augment problem solving and Response to Intervention (RTI) efforts by guiding the process of identifying specific learning disabilities (SLD). Actuarial methods use routinized selection and execution of formulas derived from empirically established relationships to make predictions that fall within a plausible range of possible future outcomes. In the case of SLD identification, the extent to which predictions are reasonable can be evaluated by their ability to categorize large segments of the population into subgroups that vary considerably along a spectrum of risk for academic failure. Although empirical comparisons of actuarial methods to clinical judgment reveal that actuarial methods consistently outperform clinical judgment, multidisciplinary teams charged with identifying SLD currently rely on clinical judgment. Actuarial methods provide educators with an empirically verifiable indicator of student need for special education and related services that could be used to estimate the relative effects of exclusionary criteria. This indicator would provide a defensible endpoint in the process of identifying SLD as well as a means of informing and improving the SLD identification process. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.