Potential upslope and latitudinal range shifts for Andean potato weevils Premnotrypes species, in the tropical Andes of South America

Abstract

Premnotrypes is a weevil species complex that occurs in the high Andes of South America. Most of the species are considered to be crop pests, associated with potato production, thus constituting a major potential pest in Andean regions. Changes in temperature patterns affect the ontogeny and physiology of crop pests directly, which will in turn affect the pest populations. Here, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential geographic distribution of seven economically important Premnotrypes species under current conditions and two under future scenarios of conditions scenarios (SSP 4.5 and SPP 8.5) for 2050 and 2090. Current-time niche models predicted suitable areas across the tropical Andes. For P. vorax, ENMs showed suitable areas across the Andes of Peru, Colombia, and Venezuela. For P. lathithorax, ENMs showed suitable areas only in the Andes of Peru and Bolivia. Finally, for P. solaniperda, P. solanivorax, P. pusillus, P. suturicallus, and P. percei, ENMs indicated suitable areas across central and southeastern Peru. Under future conditions, for all seven species, ENMs anticipated range shifts to higher latitudes and upslope migration, thus reducing suitable areas in the eastern Andes. Our novel results offer a guide for designing monitoring programs for potato pests and developing optimal pest control and mitigation strategies.