Potential tsunami hazard along the southern Turkish coast

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the tsunami potential of the southern Turkish coast through hypothetical earthquake scenarios developed for several critical coastal sites in the region. A well-known tsunami numerical model (MOST) is utilized to calculate the run-up and inundation of the subsequent tsunami waves. The coastal regions selected to realize the aim of the study are Akkuyu and Yeşilovacık from Mersin and Yumurtalık from Adana, which are chosen for their industrial and environmental importance. Time series of wave amplitudes at these three sites as well as contour plots presenting maximum wave amplitudes within the computational domain are generated for different earthquake moment magnitudes. Results obtained from the numerical model suggest that while earthquakes having magnitude smaller than 7.5 generate weak oscillations, earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7.5 result in significant waves reaching maximum wave height of a few meters at the selected coastal regions. Given the number and the magnitude scale of tsunamigenic earthquakes occurred in the region in the past, the modeling effort here indicates that hazard induced by tectonic tsunamis should seriously be taken into account by both the central and the local government authorities, who are responsible for pre- and post-disaster action planning. This issue is critical for minimizing the damage of a possible tsunami event. The proposed study is hoped to be used as a basis for future tsunami risk maps to be developed for the region.