Potential site evaluation of fifth-generation district heating and cooling networks under uncertain energy market conditions: A two-step robust design analysis approach

Abstract

In a fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) network, energy demands are satisfied without using fossil fuel-based sources, rather by sharing participants’ energy loads through decentralized consumption and production. However, finding such locations where the complementary energy demands of participants are matched is difficult. The problem becomes more complicated due to uncertain energy markets (equipment investment and operational costs). These uncertain market trends make it difficult to decide whether to build the network. Finding the feasible network temperatures for the 5GDHC network is challenging due to the conflicting participants, as at one-time instance some need cooling and others need heating. The sensitivity analysis using Sobol’ indices is performed to find the most influencing input parameters. Then, a techno-economical assessment of the considered location is performed against influencing inputs. Two different sites Diest and Alpha Cloud (Flanders, Belgium) are evaluated. The systematic techno-economic analysis under the influence of an uncertain energy market and network operating temperatures reveals that building a network might be not feasible due to the high payback period. The methodology offers greater flexibility in identifying key uncertain input parameters and evaluating the robustness of critical performance indicators, overcoming the limitations of current GIS-based approaches. This improved capability assists decision-makers in more accurately determining feasibility.