Abstract
Coastal ecosystems and anthropic activities are prone to be affected by the negative impact of marine-related processes induced by climate change, such as erosion, flooding and permanent inundation. Studies aiming at defining potential risk scenarios represent a valuable tool for the identification of the most suitable coastal adaptation measures. After outlining sea level rise implications at the Mediterranean scale, this paper deals with inundation risk scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 for the north-eastern sector of the Island of Gozo (Malta), central Mediterranean Sea. The analysis, carried out by applying an index-based procedure, firstly required the evaluation of the susceptibility to inundation of the investigated coastal stretch under different sea level projections. Then, the spatial combination of inundation susceptibility with the exposure and vulnerability of the area allowed identification of the most critical sectors in terms of coastal risk. The results of the analysis showed that, under the worst-case climate scenarios, 5.5% and 8.1% of the investigated coastal sector are prone to very high inundation risk (Class R4) in 2050 and 2100, respectively. In particular, the bays of Ramla and Marsalforn, which are characterized by significant economic and touristic activities, were found to be the sites where the expected impacts of future sea level rise will be higher if no management strategy and adaptation action are taken in the near future.
Highlights
As strongly highlighted during the last United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26, 2021 [1]), climate change represents one of the major global issues to be addressed in the coming years
To each of the four classes, the potential coastal impacts under future sea level rise were qualitatively estimated based on the evidence provided by Aucelli et al [25,37] and Di Paola et al [26,27]
Classes S1 and S2 include areas with low-medium susceptibility to sea level rise (SLR) but prone to other processes that can be worsened by SLR; Class S3 identifies areas that are prone to be impacted by frequent events of temporary flooding as a consequence of sea storms and permanent morphological changes, such as beach and dune erosion; Class S4 identifies areas prone to be permanently inundated because they are expected to be below the current mean sea level
Summary
As strongly highlighted during the last United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26, 2021 [1]), climate change represents one of the major global issues to be addressed in the coming years. The Mediterranean Sea can be considered as a “hotspot” of climate change since the effects in this area are expected to be stronger than in other areas in the world [5,6] In this context, the Mediterranean coastal areas are prone to be affected by direct and indirect climate-related impacts including an increase in sea surface temperatures and ocean acidity, northward migration of marine species, changes in phytoplankton communities, increasing risk of water-borne diseases, and losses of ecosystem services. The Mediterranean coastal areas are prone to be affected by direct and indirect climate-related impacts including an increase in sea surface temperatures and ocean acidity, northward migration of marine species, changes in phytoplankton communities, increasing risk of water-borne diseases, and losses of ecosystem services Many of these expected phenomena are related to coastal processes such as erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion, which, in turn, are strongly affected by increases in mean sea level, the most important slow-onset consequence of climate change
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