Potential sanctions on the Northeast Asia supergrid: A network theory perspective

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the potential imposition of cross-border sanctions in the proposed Northeast Asia supergrid under various scenarios. To predict the outcomes of plausible sanctions, we apply a network theory of sanctions to a simulation model of the Northeast Asia supergrid. We calculate the loss to each country connected to the supergrid by each scenario in which one country sanctions another country. Multilateral sanctions cause more loss than unilateral sanctions do, but multilateral sanctions are infeasible in some cases owing to energy dependencies among countries. Our simulation applies different rules on how to share the benefits generated by the supergrid. While the benefit-sharing rule affects the size of loss from sanctions, it does not change the availability of sanctions. China and Russia, as significant power exporters, hold a crucial role in implementing sanctions. China can enforce effective sanctions against Russia, Mongolia, Korea, and Japan. In contrast, Japan, not directly connected to China, is vulnerable to sanctions from other countries.