Abstract
There is substantial global concern over the potential impacts of plant invasions on native biodiversity in protected areas (PAs). Protected areas in tropical island countries that host rich biodiversity face an imminent risk from the potential spread of invasive alien plant species. Thus, the aim of this study was to gain a general understanding of the potential risks of multiple plant invasions in PAs located in the tropical island of Sri Lanka under projected climate change. We conducted a further analysis of a multi-species climate suitability assessment, based on a previous study using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach, and tested how species invasion may change in protected areas under climate change. We evaluated how the climate suitability of 14 nationally recognized invasive alien plant species (IAPS) will vary within PAs and outside PAs by 2050 under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Our findings suggest that there will be increased risks from multiple IAPS inside PAs and outside PAs in Sri Lanka in the future; however, the potential risk is comparatively less in PAs. We provide an overview of the species richness of selected threatened vertebrate groups, which can be potentially impacted by IAPS in PAs. The findings of this study highlight important implications for the strategic management of plant invasions in PAs in order to safeguard native biodiversity, with special reference to vertebrates.
Highlights
Biodiversity is diminishing at an unprecedented rate, despite increasing conservation initiatives worldwide [1]
We provide an overview of the species richness of selected threatened vertebrate groups, which can be potentially impacted by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) in protected areas (PAs)
Our models suggested that the climate in the mid-country and south-west Sri Lanka is more vulnerable to IAPS invasion, as compared to the other areas of the country under current and projected climate change
Summary
Biodiversity is diminishing at an unprecedented rate, despite increasing conservation initiatives worldwide [1]. Global climate is changing due to anthropogenic activities [3]; climate-induced impacts on the earth’s biota are undeniable, in tropical island countries [4]. The Earth’s temperature has increased substantially (approximately 0.6 ◦ C) over the last 10 decades [5]. The temperature of South Asia will increase in the few decades, and many countries in this region, especially small islands, are at the frontline of a climate crisis [6,7]. Many developing island nations in tropical regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and its associated impacts (i.e., impacts from IAS), due to their small size and fragile ecosystems [8,9,10,11].
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