Potential reductions of CO2 emissions from the transition to electric vehicles: Thailand’s scenarios towards 2030

Abstract

The climate crisis has become a significant concern for many worldwide sectors. One of the primary causes of global warming comes from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, in which the transport sector is the major emitter, especially from road vehicles. Electric vehicles (EVs) have been seen as the best decarbonization choice to respond to the global warming issue by replacing fossil-fueled engines with electrically driven engines, especially electricity from renewable energy sources. Last year, Thailand’s government unveiled a roadmap with a view to achieving EV production of at least 30% of all auto production in the country by 2030 through the 30@30 policy plan. This study describes the potential reductions of CO2 emissions and their cost resulting from the transition to EVs in Thailand. The CO2 emissions of EVs caused by Thailand’s road vehicle fleet and battery production have been considered, and the forecasting scenarios of the proportion of EVs in 2030 have been studied. In the scenarios, the number of road cars in 2030 was estimated based on the registered vehicle statistics in Thailand. The data on seven-passenger cars powered by gasoline and electricity are used. A potential incentive from the government to encourage the use of EVs is also discussed based on analyzing the cost of carbon.