Potential predictability of crop yield using an ensemble climate forecast by a regional circulation model

Abstract

Global/Regional Circulation Models (GCM/RCM) predict the interannual climate variability better than the absolute values of meteorological variables. Statistical bias-correction methods increase the quality of daily model predictions of incoming solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall frequency and amount. However, when bias-corrected forecasts/hindcasts are used by dynamic crop models, timing of dry-spell occurrences generate the largest uncertainty during the linking process. In this study, we used 20 ensemble members of an 18-year period provided by the Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) regional spectral model coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model (CLM2). The daily seasonal-climate hindcast was bias-corrected and used as input to the CERES-Maize model, thus producing 20 crop yield ensemble members. Using observed weather data for the same period, a time series of simulated crop yields was produced. Finally, principal component (PC) regression analysis was used to predict this time series using the crop yield ensemble members as predictors. Between 13.7 and 28.8% of the simulated corn yield interannual variability was explained using only one principal component ( p < 0.05), and estimated yields were in the correct tercile by margins of 16.7 to 38.2% beyond chance. Predictability of simulated corn yields using principal components was improved relative to the use of bias-corrected daily hindcasts. Bias-correcting all meteorological variables used by the crop model increased predictability skills compared with use of raw hindcasts, individual bias-correction of rainfall, and climatological values.