Abstract
This paper simulates land use changes at a point in time when autonomous vehicles are widespread. If autonomous vehicles become the main means of transportation in the future, people can pass their time on the road by reading, eating, and interacting with friends. People will no longer have the burden of having to drive, and this will change people's perception of travel time. In addition, this will have an impact on people's choice of residence. Previous studies have already argued that if autonomous vehicles become commonplace, the city will become suburbanized. However, previous studies have not presented specific models or figures about such future cities. Therefore, this paper seeks to suggest specific models of land use change when autonomous vehicles are dominant through the cellular automata method. For land use, residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, social, public, and green areas are considered, and accessibility, land price, accessibility to green spaces, and neighborhood effects are selected as land use change factors. Simulations based on the scenarios presented in this paper by Heinrichs show two representative results. First, most agricultural areas will decrease, and residential and commercial areas in Gyeonggi province will expand. Second, most land usage will change to residential land use, and only the central commercial area in Seoul will remain. This result can serve as a guideline for urban planning when autonomous vehicles become the main means of transportation. Furthermore, this paper could be helpful for the development of regulations and policy enforcement around autonomous vehicles.
Highlights
Autonomous driving is becoming an important issue in the field of transportation
The simulation results of the first scenario demonstrate that commercial areas and residential areas are distributed around nodes, and many agricultural areas transform into commercial and residential areas
This study proposed a simulation method to illustrate the effect of autonomous vehicles on land uses by adopting a cell-based approach and geographically demonstrated specific possible changes in land uses in Seoul Capitol Area
Summary
Autonomous driving is becoming an important issue in the field of transportation. Technologies related to autonomous vehicles are evolving rapidly, and it is feasible to envisage people traveling in autonomous vehicles in the near future. Studies on the introduction of autonomous vehicles and urban areas explore the social change [7], [9], [10], traffic change [11], and urban structure change [2], [5], [6], [12]–[14] in cities due to autonomous vehicles. Various studies have been conducted on the change of urban structure and land use when autonomous vehicles are used. Thankur et al [5] designed four scenarios of circumstances from the introduction of autonomous vehicles, and the land use change by scenario was expressed as the change of population according to the distance from the Central Business District (CBD). Noyman et al [2] illustrated change in urban structure, such as parking, roads, pedestrian routes, and subways when autonomous vehicles are introduced, depending on the ownership of autonomous vehicles. Smith [13] argued that laws or steps against urban sprawl are necessary
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