Abstract
Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have detrimental effects for groundnut. Using an ensemble of crop‐climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. It is somewhat reassuring, however, to find that after a sustained period of 50 years of geoengineering crop yields return to the nongeoengineered values within a few years once the intervention is ceased.
Highlights
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report [Bindoff et al, 2013], it is virtually certain that the observed globally averaged temperature increase in the last 60 years is due mostly to humans
Using an ensemble of crop-climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5
We focus on the BNU-ESM climate model because (1) its simulations were one of only six models included in both the CMIP5 and G3 Geoegineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) intercomparisons, (2) according to previous research it had appropriate levels and realistic spatial patterns of precipitation for the summer Indian monsoon [Sabeerali et al, 2013], and (3) the model performed well or very well relative to other CMIP5 models for total precipitation, wet day frequency, mean temperature, and diurnal temperature range compared to historical observations
Summary
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report [Bindoff et al, 2013], it is virtually certain that the observed globally averaged temperature increase in the last 60 years is due mostly to humans. We are entering an unprecedented period of temperature change in recorded history and the scientific community has an important role to scientifically evaluate whether human intervention could possibly counteract anthropogenic climate change and the potential side effects. Numerical modeling results indicate that geoengineering may be able to moderate global mean temperature [Govindasamy and Caldeira, 2000; Matthews and Caldeira, 2007]; regional temperature changes will not necessarily respond in the same way as the global average [Robock et al, 2008]. There could be local swings in temperature and precipitation that could adversely affect yields and the livelihoods of billions of people in developing countries [Asseng et al, 2014; Challinor et al, 2014b; Porter et al, 2014]
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