Potential measures for the pre-detection of terrorism

Abstract

Events worldwide make clear that the threat of terrorism is growing, and would-be terrorists may be developing new strategies and new tools that will enable them to develop massively destructive weapons. Yet, at the same time, new measures are becoming available that could improve chances for early identification of planned terrorist acts. A previous study conducted by the authors of this paper suggested that pre-detection is feasible and in many cases, likely to be effective. These hints led to the present study and a subsequent NATO workshop [3] intended to evaluate and extend a list of possible pre-detection measures and their downside risks. The present paper presents and assesses results of a Real-Time Delphi (RTD) study that was conducted to collect judgments from an expert panel on the potential effectiveness, likelihood of use and other attributes of 19 pre-detection measures derived from the literature and most importantly, their possible societal consequences. The results show that pre-detection is possible especially if some pre-detection measures are applied in parallel. While many attacks can be avoided, it is unlikely that 100% protection will ever be achieved; thus, intelligence gathering remains important and essential and resiliency and preparedness will always be necessary. The study further sheds light on possible collateral damage that could result from the inappropriate application of pre-detection measures, principally compromise or loss of civil rights. Unless we are careful in implementing these and other such measures, we could lose what we are trying to protect.