Potential invasive plant expansion in global ecoregions under climate change.

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the risk of invasive plant expansion worldwide. However, few studies have specified the relationship between invasive plant expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change. To address this gap, we provide risk maps highlighting the response of invasive plant species (IPS), with a focus on terrestrial and freshwater ecoregions to climate change, and further explore the climatic features of ecosystems with a high potential for invasive plant expansion under climate change. We use species distribution modelling to predict the suitable habitats of IPS with records at the global scale. Hotspots with a potential risk of IPS (such as aquatic plants, trees, and herbs) expanding in global ecoregions were distributed in Northern Europe, the UK, South America, North America, southwest China, and New Zealand. Temperature changes were related to the potential of IPS expansion in global ecoregions under climate change. Coastal and high latitude ecoregions, such as temperate forests, alpine vegetation, and coastal rivers, were severely infiltrated by IPS under climate change. Monitoring strategies should be defined for climate change for IPS, particularly for aquatic plants, trees, and herbs in the biomes of regions with coastal or high latitudes. The role of climate change on the potential for IPS expansion should be taken into consideration for biological conservation and risk evaluation of IPS at ecoregional scales.