Potential Invasion of the Great Lakes by Fish Species Associated with Climatic Warming

Abstract

Global warming associated with increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other gases (i.e., the greenhouse effect) has been widely predicted. This warming process would likely alter the geographic distribution of numerous fish species in the Great Lakes region. The probability of 58 common, widely distributed species invading the upper Great Lakes (Lakes Huron and Superior) from the lower Great Lakes (Lakes Michigan, Erie, and Ontario), and the lower Great Lakes from the Mississippi and Atlantic Coastal basins was assessed by comparing ecological characteristics of possible invaders to those of 11 recently invading species, using discriminant function and principal components analyses. Twenty-seven of these 58 species were judged to be potential invaders of the Great Lakes as a response to climatic warming. These invading species would dramatically alter the present Great Lakes fish communities.