Potential impacts on climate change on paddy rice yield in mountainous highland terrains

Abstract

Crop models are suitable tools to assess the potential impacts of climate change on crop productivity. While the associated assessment reports have been focused on major rice production regions, there is little information on how climate change will impact the future rice crop production in mountainous highland regions. This study investigated effects of climate change on yield of paddy rice (Oryza sativa) in mountainous highland terrains of Korea using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop model. The model was first calibrated and validated based on observed data and then applied to simulations for the future projections of rice yield in a typical mountainous terrain which borders North and South Korea, the Haean Basin in Kangwon Province, Republic of Korea. Rice yield in the highland terrain was projected to increase by 2050 and 2100 primarily due to elevated CO2 concentration. This effect of CO2 fertilization on yield (+10.9% in 2050 and +20.0% in 2100) was also responsible for increases in water-use efficiency and nitrogen-use efficiency. With management options, such as planting date shift and increasing nitrogen application, additional yield gains were predicted in response to the future climate in this area. We also found that improving genetic traits should be another option to get further yield increases. All in all, climate change in mountainous highland areas should positively influence on paddy rice productivity.