Potential impacts of climate change on the threat of potato cyst nematode species in Great Britain

Abstract

Potato cyst nematode (PCN) species have different temperature optima for various life cycle stages, therefore a risk assessment of the threat of PCN species under future climates is essential to guide adaptation strategies. Data defining the spatial coverage of potato crops in Great Britain were combined with probabilistic climate change data and a newly developed PCN life cycle model to project the future risk to potato crops from PCN. The model was based on the results of controlled environment experiments to investigate the effect of temperature on survival to female maturity using three PCN populations: Globodera pallida (Lindley) and G. rostochiensis from the James Hutton Institute PCN collection, and a field population of G. pallida (S‐Fife). It was found that projected increases in soil temperature could result in increased survival to female maturity for all three PCN populations, with greater increases expected for Scotland, followed by Wales then England. The largest projected increases in Scotland were for G. pallida, whereas G. rostochiensis showed the largest increases in Wales and England. The potential impact of several agronomic adaptation strategies on projected PCN risk were also investigated. The results from the model suggest that soil infestation levels would have to be reduced by up to 40% in order to negate projected increases in PCN risk, and that advancing the start date of the growing season or modifying planting patterns could be successful strategies to reduce future PCN risk.