Potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of Chinese ski resorts

Abstract

Chinese skiing tourism is rapidly developing, but it will be potentially affected by snow resources and climate conditions. This study systematically analysed the spatial characteristics of snow resources, climatic conditions and ski resorts in China; revealed the potential impacts of climatic environment on current ski resorts by using Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4); and proposed suggestions for climate resource assessment and spatial planning of ski resorts. The mean snow depth and snow cover days are more than 4.50 cm and 150 d between the years 2000 and 2014, respectively, in high-latitude areas, where fewer ski resorts are located. In the middle-low latitude areas, the mean snow depth and snow cover days are less than 3.00 cm and 100 d, respectively, with ski resorts being intensively distributed. In most of these areas, the pronounced climate warming exceeded 0.50 °C during the ski period of 2009–2015 relative to 1961–2015, and mean annual precipitation was less than 800 mm, with some even less than 400 mm. In the 2030s and 2050s, the regions with drastic temperature increases are mainly in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, Northeast China, and the Yangtze River Basin. The upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River are expected to experience reduced snowfalland temperature increases with an almost 1–1.6 °C, respectively. In this context, some ski resorts will face major threats because of shortened skiing durations and rising management costs. Skiing tourism should not pursue a one-sided growth rate in the number of ski resorts in areas with short snowpack periods. Instead, it should rely highly on snow resources, climatic conditions, geographical environment, population and economic basis, and rationalise its spatial layout to promote the industry towards sustainable development.