Potential impact of nirsevimab and bivalent maternal vaccine against RSV bronchiolitis in infants: A population-based modelling study

Abstract

BackgroundA new monoclonal antibody (nirsevimab; Beyfortus®) and a bivalent prefusion RSV vaccine (Abrysvo®) for maternal immunization have been approved recently. This is a modelling study to estimate the potential impact of different immunization programs with these products on RSV-bronchiolitis. MethodsPopulation-based real-world data from primary care and hospitalizations were considered. RSV bronchiolitis dynamics in absence of these immunization scenarios were explained by a multivariate age-structured Bayesian model. Then, the potential impact was simulated under different assumptions including the most recent clinical trial data. Differences in endpoints, populations, and timeframes between trials make the two products’ efficacy difficult to compare. ResultsA seasonal with catch-up program, assuming a constant effectiveness of 79.5 % during the first 5 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 with nirsevimab, would prevent between 5121 and 8,846RSV bronchiolitis per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 77.3 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 976and 16,86RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented depending on the uptake. A year-round maternal immunization program, with 51 % of effectiveness during the first 6 months followed by a linear decay to 0 by month 10 would prevent between 3,246and 5,606RSV bronchiolitis cases per 100,000 infants-years. Assuming 56.9 % effectiveness with the same decay, between 713 and 1231 RSV-hospitalizations per 100,000 infants-years could be prevented. ConclusionsOur results suggest that each strategy would effectively reduce RSV-bronchiolitis.