Potential Impact of HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Among Black and White Adolescent Sexual Minority Males.

Abstract

To assess the potential impact of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on the HIV epidemic among Black and White adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM). We used a network model and race-specific data from recent trials to simulate HIV transmission among a population of Black and White 13- to 18-year-old ASMM over 20 years. We estimated the number of infections prevented (impact) and the number needed to treat to prevent an infection (efficiency) under multiple coverage and adherence scenarios. At modeled coverage and adherence, PrEP could avert 3% to 20% of infections among Black ASMM and 8% to 51% among White ASMM. A larger number, but smaller percentage, of infections were prevented in Black ASMM in all scenarios examined. PrEP was more efficient among Black ASMM (number needed to treat to avert an infection = 25-32) compared with White ASMM (146-237). PrEP can reduce HIV incidence among both Black and White ASMM but is far more efficient for Black ASMM because of higher incidence. Public Health Implications. Black ASMM communities suffer disproportionate HIV burden; despite imperfect adherence, PrEP programs could prevent HIV efficiently in these communities.