Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of some selected legumes in Cameroon and adjoining Nigeria border

Abstract

AbstractOrganismal response to climate change may affect long‐term conservation plans. However, how climate change affects the distribution and conservation status of some plant species is still being debated. To test this, we selected four economically important legume species (Adenocarpus mannii, Afzelia bella, Afzelia bipindensis and Baphia nitida) from the Nigeria–Cameroon border in West Africa. The link between climate change and the species distribution range was predicted using the ensemble species distribution model (ESDM). Our analyses revealed the precipitation of the coldest period (50%) and precipitation of the driest period (40%) as the most important environmental variables influencing the distribution of the studied species. The projection shows independent habitat shifts (gain/loss) of the species consequent to climate change in the future (2050 and 2070). Despite the restricted coverage of occupancy for the selected species, our estimated species distribution range from the ESDM agrees with the current IUCN conservation status (least concern) for A. mannii. Hence, our results suggest that species distribution modelling at local habitats could yield insights into global species conservation assessments. Our findings highlighted the need for conservation through regulated land use in Dibombari highland, Cameroon Mountain (Cameroon) and the forests around Oban hills in Nigeria due to projected high species loss consequent to climate change. Thus, we recommend ecological niche modelling with extensive field surveys across the entire geographic range of these species for robust inferences that allow comparisons with the IUCN status.