Potential impact of climate change on plant invasion in the Republic of Korea

Pradeep Adhikari,Man-Seok Shin,Changwan Seo,Hyun Woo Kim,Ja-Young Jeon,Prabhat Adhikari

doi:10.1186/s41610-019-0134-3

Abstract

BackgroundInvasive plant species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing worldwide. Climatically suitable ranges for invasive plant species are expected to expand due to future climate change. The identification of current invasions and potential range expansion of invasive plant species is required to plan for the management of these species. Here, we predicted climatically suitable habitats for 11 invasive plant species and calculated the potential species richness and their range expansions in different provinces of the Republic of Korea (ROK) under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach.ResultsBased on the model predictions, areas of climatically suitable habitats for 90.9% of the invasive plant species are expected to retain current ecological niches and expand to include additional climatically suitable areas under future climate change scenarios. Species richness is predicted to be relatively high in the provinces of the western and southern regions (e.g., Jeollanam, Jeollabuk, and Chungcheongnam) under current climatic conditions. However, under future climates, richness in the provinces of the northern, eastern, and southeastern regions (e.g., Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gyeongsangnam, Degue, Busan, and Ulsan) is estimated to increase up to 292%, 390.75%, and 468.06% by 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively, compared with the current richness.ConclusionsOur study revealed that the rates of introduction and dispersion of invasive plant species from the western and southern coasts are relatively high and are expanding across the ROK through different modes of dispersion. The negative impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, and economy caused by invasive plant species will be high if preventive and eradication measures are not employed immediately. Thus, this study will be helpful to policymakers for the management of invasive plant species and the conservation of biodiversity.

Highlights

Invasive plant species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing worldwide
The threshold for weak correlation was r < 0.5. These six variables were used in the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models for studying the distributions of invasive plant species
Bio3 had the highest contributions (27.51–41.09%) to the modeling of six species, and Bio 14 contributed the highest proportion to the Ambrosia artemisiifolia (38.17%), Hypochaeris radicata (77.02%), and Rumex acetosella (24.41%)

Summary

Introduction

Invasive plant species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing worldwide. Invasive plant species are non-indigenous species that introduced into a new geographic region either deliberately or inadvertently and impacting negatively on agriculture, horticulture, and wild ecosystem (Cullen et al 2011; Eminniyaz et al 2013; Ricciardi 2013; Early et al 2016). They alter the dynamics of plant communities and imperil the stability and functioning of ecosystem by affecting nutrient cycle, increasing soil acidity, competing with indigenous flora, and inhibiting their regeneration Integrative study of climate change and biological invasion are required for long-term management of invasive plant species

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Discussion

Conclusion