Potential impact of climate change on Hayward kiwifruit production viability in New Zealand

Abstract

ABSTRACTSufficient winter chilling is vital for kiwifruit dormancy release and producing high flower numbers in spring. As global (and New Zealand) average temperatures rise, the risk of insufficient winter chilling increases. This study looks at the potential impact of climate change (considering temperature changes only) on the production viability of the Actinidia chinensis var. deliciosa ‘Hayward’ cultivar of kiwifruit, also known as ‘Hayward’, focusing on the principal growing area of Te Puke in the Bay of Plenty of New Zealand. It is shown that production viability steadily decreases over the coming decades for Te Puke, and becomes generally non-viable by the end of the century under all but the most stringent of global greenhouse gas emissions pathways. There are, however, many other areas of New Zealand that show a potential increase in Hayward kiwifruit production viability over the course of the century.