Potential Illicit Financial Flow Risks in Ghana’s Gold-for-Oil Transaction

Abstract

This chapter presents multidisciplinary perspectives on a unique barter trade arrangement—the Gold-for-Oil (G4O) policy initiated by the government of Ghana in November 2022. First, it uses econometric analysis to examine the economic motivation for the policy, that oil importation is the major driver of the depreciation of the domestic currency against the US dollar. Second, it provides a political economy overview of the policy, highlighting the governance issues surrounding the policy’s formulation and implementation processes. Third, it examines existing legal and regulatory frameworks, asking if due process was followed in these processes. The econometric analysis shows that although there is a positive and statistically significant long-run relationship between Ghana’s domestic currency depreciation and oil imports, the effect size is not large (the long-run oil import elasticity of the exchange rate is about 0.20), suggesting that even under the best case scenario of policy implementation within the right legal regime, the G4O initiative will not be a panacea for the perennial exchange rate volatility problem. The political economy and legal analyses highlight issues of insufficient consultations, disregard for legal foundations that might facilitate illicit financial flows (IFFs) through smuggling and illegal gold trade, the lack of transparency in the implementation of the policy and the pricing mechanisms that could increase the risk of IFFs through mispricing, and insufficient operational clarity. To enhance the policy’s effectiveness, it would be necessary to establish a comprehensive legal framework, foster stakeholder engagement, ensure transparency, and coordinate efforts among all parties. There should also be a general focus on reducing unnecessary importations and boosting exports. All these could reduce the risk of IFFs and ensure that Ghana’s natural resources are optimally utilised for the benefit of the population.