Potential human health benefits of antibiotics used in food animals: a case study of virginiamycin

Abstract

Risk management of food-animal antibiotics has reached a crucial juncture for public health officials worldwide. While withdrawals of animal antibiotics previously used to control animal bacterial illnesses are being encouraged in many countries, the human health impacts of such withdrawals are only starting to be understood. Increases in animal and human bacterial illness rates and antibiotic resistance levels in humans in Europe despite bans on animal antibiotics there have raised questions about how animal antibiotic use affects human health. This paper presents a quantitative human health risk and benefits assessment for virginiamycin (VM), a streptogramin antibiotic recommended for withdrawal from use in food animals in several countries. It applies a new quantitative Rapid Risk Rating Technique (RRRT) that estimates and multiplies data-driven exposure, dose–response, and consequence factors, as suggested by WHO (2003) to estimate human health impacts from withdrawing virginiamycin. Increased human health risks from more pathogens reaching consumers if VM use is terminated (6660 estimated excess campylobacteriosis cases per year in the base case) are predicted to far outweigh benefits from reduced streptogramin-resistant vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREF) infections in human patients (0.27 estimated excess cases per year in the base case). While lack of information about impacts of VM withdrawal on average human illnesses-per-serving of food animal meat precludes a deterministic conclusion, it appears very probable that such a withdrawal would cause many times more human illnesses than it would prevent. This qualitative conclusion appears to be robust to several scientific and modeling uncertainties.